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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 31 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 3-M.McCrane 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model