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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 23 for 12 yards (82-O.Charles, 24-N.Chubb).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model