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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 42 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 47 for 14 yards (24-N.Chubb).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP