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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to CLE 29 for 49 yards (24-N.Chubb; 88-D.Fells).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model