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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 3-M.McCrane 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model