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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 17-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP