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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to CLE 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model