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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Thursday 2018-09-20 · 20:20 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYJ
40.9%
CLE
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (CLE): -0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYJ

Josh Martin LB Out Concussion
Neal Sterling TE Out Concussion
Marcus Maye S Doubtful Foot

CLE

Seth DeValve TE Out Hamstring
Emmanuel Ogbah DE Out Ankle
Christian Kirksey LB Doubtful Shoulder
Damarious Randall S Questionable Heel
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 17
–
CLE 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) (Shotgun) 20-I.Crowell left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 07:59 TD NYJ (7:59) 20-I.Crowell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-20-I.Crowell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:27 FG CLE (:27) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYJ 14 – CLE 3
  • Q3 05:24 FG CLE (5:24) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYJ 14 – CLE 6
  • Q3 00:47 TD CLE (:47) (No Huddle) 34-C.Hyde right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – CLE 12
  • Q4 08:58 FG NYJ (8:58) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 17 – CLE 14
  • Q4 02:07 TD CLE (2:07) 34-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to NYJ 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CLE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for 2 yards (36-D.Middleton).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%

    (10:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to NYJ 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to NYJ 39 for 8 yards (56-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 62 yards to CLE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 17 for 5 yards (23-T.Brooks). PENALTY on CLE-37-D.Rice, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:21) 4-B.Colquitt punts 3 yards to CLE 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-T.Brooks MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CLE 28. 56 Pierre-Louis deflected punt

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at NYJ 37 for 12 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 45%

    (2:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NYJ 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-D.Kindred.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to CLE 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-J.Landry. PENALTY on CLE-38-T.Carrie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 79%

    (:27) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 18%

    (:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to CLE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to CLE 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 25 for 17 yards (42-T.Hennessy). PENALTY on CLE-37-D.Rice, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 34%

    (7:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (5:24) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:41) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-J.Landry to CLE 31 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (8:58) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-J.Kearse to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 61%

    (1:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to NYJ 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-D.Kindred.