4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model