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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.29 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model