4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model