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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 96

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to NYJ 39 for 8 yards (56-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -3.70 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 96, worth -6.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -3.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model