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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 21 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to NYJ 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-D.Kindred.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +0.74 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP