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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 53

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to CLE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -1.07 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model