Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 21

(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-J.Kearse to NYJ 37 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP