Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 62 yards to CLE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 17 for 5 yards (23-T.Brooks). PENALTY on CLE-37-D.Rice, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.89 EP
73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model