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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.18 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model