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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 10

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP