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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NYJ 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-D.Kindred.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model