IND @ PHI — 4th & Data

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HC Frank Reich

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

IND

31.7%

PHI

68.3%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PHI defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
IND offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.206 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.164 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Carson Wentz in place of Nick Foles)

Predicted Final Score

IND 20

–

PHI 27

Projected margin: PHI by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

IND

Denico Autry DT Out Ankle

Anthony Castonzo T Out Hamstring

Jack Doyle TE Out Hip

Marlon Mack RB Out Foot

Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Calf

Quincy Wilson CB Out Concussion

Clayton Geathers S Questionable Knee

Chris Milton CB Questionable Concussion

PHI

Jay Ajayi RB Out Back

Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring

Jason Peters T Questionable Quadricep

Corey Clement RB Questionable Quadricep

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Groin

Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 16

–

PHI 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:14 TD PHI (7:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – PHI 6
Q1 00:28 TD IND (:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 11-R.Grant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – PHI 7
Q2 03:09 FG PHI (3:09) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. IND 7 – PHI 10
Q3 09:44 FG IND (9:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – PHI 10
Q3 08:26 FG IND (8:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – PHI 10
Q3 02:53 FG PHI (2:53) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. IND 13 – PHI 13
Q4 14:22 FG IND (14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – PHI 13
Q4 03:06 TD PHI (3:06) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – PHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:30) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement to PHI 34 for 2 yards (52-N.Goode). PENALTY on PHI-29-A.Maddox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31.
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(5:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to PHI 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 39. 30-C.Clement to PHI 39 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). PENALTY on PHI-50-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 39.
Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 60%

(2:21) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP

p(convert) 60%

(12:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to IND 24, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.
Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

(9:52) 2-R.Sanchez punts 31 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 30-C.Clement.
Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

(3:09) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(1:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement to PHI 28 for 4 yards (49-M.Adams).
Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(13:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to IND 35, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 28

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 80%

(11:35) 20-J.Wilkins left end to PHI 23 for 5 yards (58-J.Hicks).
Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

(9:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

(8:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(2:53) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(1:26) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 19. 30-C.Clement to PHI 19 for no gain (28-C.Milton).
Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

(14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 4 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72%

(:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to IND 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-T.Hilton ran ob at IND 29 for 10 yards. PENALTY on IND-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 21. Penalty on IND-30-G.Odum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.