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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement to PHI 28 for 4 yards (49-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model