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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to IND 24, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP