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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model