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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model