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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model