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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model