Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 2-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement to PHI 34 for 2 yards (52-N.Goode). PENALTY on PHI-29-A.Maddox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model