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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to IND 35, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.44 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model