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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 4-J.Elliott 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.55 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model