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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model