Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 19. 30-C.Clement to PHI 19 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model