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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🥶 Cold Spread 2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

JAX
54.3%
TEN
45.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Ankle
Abry Jones DT Questionable Back
Blair Brown LB Questionable Concussion
Cam Robinson T Questionable Abdomen

TEN

DeMarco Murray RB Out Knee
Logan Ryan CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 10
–
TEN 15

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:17 TD TEN (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 10:14 FG JAX (10:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:26 FG TEN (1:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 3 – TEN 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 3 – TEN 12
  • Q3 07:47 FG TEN (7:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 3 – TEN 15
  • Q4 11:02 TD JAX (11:02) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 32, RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 33. 91-Y.Ngakoue for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – TEN 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:46) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to TEN 25, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 41 for 16 yards (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 25%

    (11:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:20) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to TEN 17, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 16 for -1 yards (52-D.Payne).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 18, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (10:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:38) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 32, RECOVERED by TEN-89-P.Supernaw at JAX 23. PENALTY on JAX-85-J.Mickens, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 23.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:47) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 2. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 5 for 3 yards (13-T.Taylor; 88-L.Stocker).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to JAX 43, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (7:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:02) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 30 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 72%

    (12:28) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to JAX 30 for 2 yards (97-M.Jackson).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-89-P.Supernaw.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 36%

    (7:57) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 25 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 20 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 28 for -1 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 22 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.