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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to JAX 43, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.43 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model