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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model