Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

(3:38) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model