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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to TEN 17, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 16 for -1 yards (52-D.Payne).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model