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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP