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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 18, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.22 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP