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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 15

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model