4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 22 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +0.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP