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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 32
Tennessee Titans 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(12:28) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to JAX 30 for 2 yards (97-M.Jackson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.83 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
KICK
+0.90 EP
- 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 28% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
