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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 15 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 30 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.25 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model