4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 15

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 28 for -1 yards (51-P.Posluszny).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model