4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LA
46.1%
SEA
53.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.121 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.168 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LA

Brandon Allen QB Doubtful Back

SEA

Kam Chancellor S Out Neck
Nazair Jones DT Doubtful Ankle
K.J. Wright LB Doubtful Concussion
Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 42
–
SEA 7

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 FG LA (12:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 08:24 FG LA (8:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 06:00 TD LA (6:00) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – SEA 0
  • Q2 08:16 TD LA (8:16) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – SEA 0
  • Q2 03:29 TD LA (3:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:37 TD LA (:37) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – SEA 0
  • Q3 07:10 TD LA (7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 30-T.Gurley for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 40 – SEA 0
  • Q3 01:28 TD SEA (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 82-L.Willson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 40 – SEA 6
  • Q4 10:19 SAF LA (10:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on SEA-3-R.Wilson, Intentional Grounding, 5 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. LA 42 – SEA 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%

    (12:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to LA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at 50 for 4 yards (42-D.Hill).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (8:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper to SEA 1 for 53 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 20%

    (2:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (11:45) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 57-M.Wilhoite (30-B.McDougald) at SEA 13. 57-M.Wilhoite ran ob at SEA 13 for no gain.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to LA 38, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at SEA 36 for 26 yards (81-N.Vannett).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper to LA 39 for 6 yards (47-P.Dawson). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LA 39.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 61 yards to LA 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper to LA 22 for 9 yards (30-B.McDougald; 58-D.Alexander).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-50-S.Ebukam.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 41%

    (13:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 10 for no gain (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to LA 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 40 for 4 yards (69-T.Ott).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-50-S.Ebukam.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 44%

    (8:09) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to SEA 37 for 3 yards (99-Q.Jefferson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short right to 86-D.Carrier to SEA 27 for 5 yards (30-B.McDougald). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short right to 86-D.Carrier to SEA 28 for 4 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to LA 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to SEA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at LA 45 for 18 yards (6-J.Hekker; 50-S.Ebukam).