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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 42 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short right to 86-D.Carrier to SEA 27 for 5 yards (30-B.McDougald). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short right to 86-D.Carrier to SEA 28 for 4 yards (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model