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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 40 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 10 for no gain (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP