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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 40 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-50-S.Ebukam.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP