Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.30 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -1.58 EP

20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
80% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model