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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper to LA 39 for 6 yards (47-P.Dawson). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LA 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model