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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP